Unmoored in the East, India Must Reimagine Its Role as the Bay of Bengal Becomes a Theatre of Competition, Not Compliance
Dhaka Drifts, the East Shifts
When Sheikh Hasina was ousted from power and sought political refuge in India, New Delhi’s response was instinctive—offering sanctuary to a long-standing ally. What followed, however, was anything but predictable. Dhaka, now under a newly assertive interim government led by Dr. Muhammad Yunus, responded with startling clarity: a diplomatic rebuke, joint naval drills with China and Pakistan, and a formal request to curtail Hasina’s public messaging from Indian soil.
This was more than a rejection of India’s perceived overreach. It marked the unveiling of a new strategic posture. Bangladesh, once India’s eastern anchor, has pivoted from alignment to autonomy. And that quiet corridor—from the Northeast to the Nicobar Islands—is no longer calm.
From Chittagong to Colombo, Kyaukphyu to Malé, India’s eastern flank is fraying. What was once its most stable strategic arc has become its most contested. The challenge before New Delhi is not merely how to respond—but whether it can still lead.
From Golden Chapter to Grey Zone: India’s Bangladesh Misread
India’s ties with Bangladesh have long been hailed as a “golden chapter” in South Asian diplomacy—rooted in 1971, reinforced by energy trade and counterterrorism coordination, and personified by the Hasina-Modi rapport. But this success rested on a narrow base.
New Delhi’s regional strategy hinged overwhelmingly on Hasina’s leadership, with minimal investment in durable institutional ties beyond her office. Her departure exposed the fragility of this model—revealing how personal rapport had come to substitute for long-term diplomacy.
Now, Dr. Yunus—a Nobel laureate with technocratic credentials and youth-driven support—has made his intentions clear: economic dignity, diplomatic sovereignty, and diversified alignments. He is not anti-India—but unmistakably post-India.
India, once the architect of regional influence, is suddenly reacting to its erosion.
Hasina’s Shadow: A Humanitarian Gesture, a Strategic Minefield
India’s decision to host Hasina was morally defensible—consistent with its democratic ethos and tradition of political refuge. But geopolitically, it was combustible. For Dhaka’s new leaders, her public statements from Indian soil were not seen as dissent, but as destabilising interference.
When Bangladesh formally requested India restrict her visibility, it marked a historic first in bilateral ties. The issue ceased to be personal; it became symbolic. It tested India’s ability to balance principle with prudence.
In South Asia, the line between sanctuary and subversion is perilously thin. India now faces a rare challenge: defending its democratic values without appearing as a patron of counter-regime narratives. Few tests of strategic maturity are as delicate—or as consequential.
The Bay of Bengal: No Longer a Backyard
While the Dhaka drama has captured headlines, the deeper geopolitical churn is offshore. The Bay of Bengal—once India’s maritime comfort zone—has transformed into a zone of convergence and contestation.
China has entrenched itself through ports, pipelines, and naval partnerships in Chittagong, Kyaukphyu, and Colombo. Turkey and Gulf states are funding logistics and defence cooperation in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Myanmar, diplomatically isolated, remains a linchpin in China’s land-sea corridor. Even Nepal is exploring maritime access via Bangladesh.
Meanwhile, external actors—Japan, Australia, the U.S.—have bolstered their naval presence under the banner of a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific.” The Bay is no longer a quiet flank—it is a theatre where influence must be earned, not assumed.
Geography once favoured India. Now, only capability and creativity will.
Neighbourhood First: Vision Without Velocity
India’s “Neighbourhood First” policy was envisioned as a soft-power doctrine—inclusive, development-led, and culturally rooted. But today, it risks becoming a casualty of inertia.
Nepal has tilted toward Chinese infrastructure. The Maldives asked Indian troops to leave. Sri Lanka plays Beijing’s largesse against Delhi’s caution. And now, Bangladesh—the crown jewel of neighbourhood diplomacy—has reset the rules of engagement.
This is not betrayal. It is assertion. South Asia is no longer a zone of Indian primacy—it is a space of multipolar ambition. Nations seek partnership, not patronage; respect, not reassurance.
Five Strategic Gaps
India’s loosening grip on its eastern arc stems from five persistent blind spots:
1. The Personality Trap: Diplomacy rooted in individual leaders’ falters when regimes change.
2. The Maritime Mirage: Geography is no longer destiny; ports, pipelines, and platforms shape maritime power.
3. The Connectivity Lag: India’s slow delivery on infrastructure has ceded ground to China’s high-speed capital.
4. The Security-Only Lens: Military gestures without economic and cultural ballast fail to resonate.
5. The Missing Narrative: India’s strategic storytelling in the Bay lacks clarity and regional appeal.
Reclaiming the Arc: From Reaction to Reinvention
India must shift from managing crises to shaping coalitions. The eastern arc—from Assam to the Andamans—requires more than reactive diplomacy. It demands strategic reinvention.
🔹 Re-centre Institutions, Not Individuals
Deepen civil society, academic, and cross-party linkages in Bangladesh. Build diplomacy that survives electoral cycles.
🔹 Launch a Bay of Bengal Initiative (BBI)
Position India as the lead architect of a regional compact on green ports, blue economy innovation, and climate resilience.
🔹 Transform the Andamans into an Anchor
Develop the Andaman & Nicobar Command into a hub for Indo-Pacific dialogue, climate science, naval training, and disaster response—with ASEAN, Japan, and Australia.
🔹 Reclaim BIMSTEC—or Reinvent It
Evolve BIMSTEC into a “Bay Compact” for coast guard integration, regional logistics, and transboundary infrastructure.
🔹 Humanise Strategy
Expand scholarships, cultural exchanges, language programs, and digital youth partnerships across Bay states. Influence endures when built on trust, not just treaties.
From Decline to Design
India’s eastern arc is not lost—it is simply unanchored. The Bay of Bengal is not slipping away—it is being redrawn. Delhi’s choice is not between nostalgia and surrender, but between inertia and imagination.
If India continues to act as if influence is inherited, it will fade. But if it sees Dhaka’s defiance, Colombo’s balancing, and Kyaukphyu connectivity not as threats but as invitations—it can reforge a relevant role.
Strategic neighbourhoods do not remain static. They evolve—and demand that their leaders evolve too.
The Bay is rewriting the map. Whether India still holds the compass depends on one thing: its willingness to design the future, not just defend the past.
Dr. Gaurav Vaid
Source: https://epaper.greaterjammu.com/epaper/edition/650/epaper-31-07-2025/page/6